Rookie head coach JJ Redick could jumpstart the Lakers stretch run by making four critical changes to his starting lineup and rotation before rather than after tonight’s prime time matchup against the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers can’t count that adding Luka Doncic will be enough to offset losing Anthony Davis and Max Christie or erase the mental edge the Denver Nuggets have used to dominate the Los Angeles Lakers for several years.
JJ Redick would be smart to get ahead of the curve and make the likely changes that another beat down by Denver tonight would demand before the game to give his team a chance to pull off an upset and end the curse.
Right now, it’s obvious to everybody but Redick that the Lakers need more defense in the starting lineup and more offense off the bench for his 10-man rotation to work. It’s also obvious Alex Len is a poor fit next to Luka.
Frankly, a big part of the problem is JJ is still trying to walk the tight rope of integrating a ball dominant superstar in Luka Doncic without alienating LeBron James, Austin Reaves, or any of the Lakers’ other current starters.
What JJ needs to remember is there are now only 29 games remaining in this season and the Lakers have already slipped to 5th with Luka still, at best, multiple games away from being fully healthy and ready to dominate.
JJ has no games or time to waste. There are obvious moves to make that would not only help the team but also send a message to Luka that the Lakers are his team and the coach is making the moves to support that.
Let’s look at the four lineup changes JJ Redick needs to make for the Lakers to become Luka’s team and how their new starting lineup and rotation give them their best chance to upset their nemesis Denver Nuggets tonight.
1. Start Finney-Smith Over Hachimura
Starting Dorian Finney-Smith over Rui Hachimura is the most important roster move JJ could make before tonight’s game against the Nuggets. DFS is the Lakers’ best defensive player and starting lineup needs him.
The Lakers also are under pressure to sign Dorian Finney-Smith to an extension or possibly lose him to free agency this summer. Even more importantly, Finney-Smith is a player Luka Doncic loves playing with.
The Lakers would be smart to promote Dorian Finney-Smith to be a starter and then to give him a new contract commensurate with the value he has brought to the team at both ends of the court. Keeping DFS is top priority.
While Rui Hachimura has done a fine job starting, he is not the individual or team defender that Dorian Finney-Smith is and the Lakers desperately need to upgrade the defense of their starting lineup. Starting DFS is step 1.
The change not only adds Finney-Smith’s valuable defense to the starting lineup but also Hachimura’s volume offense to the non-starting lineups. Rui should be even more dominant offensively against second stringers.
Over the last 15 games, Finney-Smith has averaged 7.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.2 blocks in 26.7 minutes per game while shooting 50.0% from the field, 39.6% from three, and 100.0% from the line.
During that same 15-game stretch, Dorian posted a team best 100.3 defensive rating and +19.3 net rating. Dorian has simply been the Lakers’ best role player during the last 15 games and deserves to be the starter.
Right now, Redick is playing Hachimura around 5 minutes per game more than Finney-Smith. Starting DFS and moving Hachimura to the bench will correct that imbalance and give valuable Finney-Smith needed minutes.
2. Start Gabe Vincent Over Austin Reaves
The Lakers also need to start Gabe Vincent over Austin Reaves because he’s a better fit defensively next to Luka Doncic at shooting guard and AR’s elite shot-making and playmaking would be a better fit coming off the bench.
This is a very difficult personnel decision to make but one that must be made for the good of the team and for the future of Austin Reaves. Defensively, the Lakers simply cannot start Doncic, James, and Reaves.
Even with James now playing some of the best defense we’ve seen from him in years and Reaves making a valiant effort, the Lakers cannot win the NBA championship starting three players who are defensively challenged.
The Lakers need better offense/defense balance in their starting lineup and Austin Reaves needs a role where he can focus more on making shots and plays and not wearing himself out defending the other team’s top scorer.
Coming off the bench, Austin Reaves will be able to get more touches and opportunities playing alongside just one of LeBron James or Luka Doncic rather than trying to fit in as the third option after the two superstars.
JJ Redick needs to remember that the Lakers are now Luka Doncic’s team and as soon as he is physically and mentally ready to take over the offense, he’s going to need to have the ball in his hands whenever he’s in the game.
Frankly, there are not going to be enough touches left for two other point guards and playing Doncic, James, and Reaves together is not only not a smart plan defensively but is also just too many point guards for one ball.
Now healthy, Gabe has become one of the Lakers most trusted defenders and 3-point shooters, averaging 8.9 points, 1.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists in 22.7 minutes per game, shooting 38.2% from three with a 105.3 defensive rating.
3. Play Christian Koloko Over Alex Len
The Lakers also need to give Christian Koloko the backup center minutes allocated to Alex Len because Luka Doncic needs more vertical lob threats like Jaxson Hayes. Koloko would give Luka another vertical lob target.
While the Lakers plan to play a lot of small ball to compensate for the lack of positional centers on the roster, they need to give Koloko an opportunity to play the minutes given to Len. He’s clearly a better lob threat than Len.
Given a chance, I think Koloko could justify being promoted from two-way to standard contract so he would be eligible for the playoffs. The Lakers have until the last day of the season to make a decision on Christian.
The Lakers must do everything possible to ensure that Luka signs an extension before August 2nd. Knowing how important having vertical lob threats are to Luka’s game, the Lakers need to see what Koloko can do.
A legitimate 7-footer, Christian is the only other player on the Lakers’ roster who has the talent and tools to be an effective vertical lob threat for Luka. Koloko needs an opportunity to see how he fits as Hayes’ possible backup.
The remaining 29 games are going to be critical for the Lakers to figure out how best to optimize Luka Doncic with their current roster to have a shot to win their 18th championship while LeBron is still playing like a superstar.
JJ Redick would be smart both in the short and long term to give any backup center minutes to young Christian Koloko rather than veteran Alex Len because he’s a better fit for what Doncic likes offensively in a center.
The Lakers need to make sure to do everything they can to give Luka players who complement what he does best and cover for his weaknesses. Right now, Christian Koloko could be another vertical lob threat for Luka.
4. Two Point Guards In Every Lineup
The best way the Lakers can take advantage of having three elite starting quality point guards in Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves is by staggering them to ensure that two of the three are on the court at all times.
By moving Austin Reaves to the bench as the team’s 6th man, JJ Redick has made it easier to create a starting lineup and 10-man rotation where he will have Luka/LeBron, Luka/Reaves, or LeBron/Reaves on the court all game.
Building intelligent lineups that work is easy when every lineup created is anchored by an elite point guard duo that includes one of the team’s two superstars. Just add three needed shooters, rebounders, and defenders.
If JJ wants high scoring offense, then surround Luka/LeBron, Luka/Reaves, or LeBron/Reaves with dead-eye 3-point shooters. If he wants elite defense, then surround them with a trio of Vanderbilt, Finney-Smith, and Vincent.
Now that the Lakers are close to being 100% healthy, their lineups have become much more versatile with better balance of offense and defense. Most importantly, JJ now has tools to help at both ends of the court.
One of the goals JJ Redick needs to ace over the next 29 games is fixing the starting lineup and 10-man rotation he is going to utilize to win games in the playoffs. Frankly, the playoffs start right now for teams in the West.
Having three starting quality point guards is actually a gigantic benefit for the Lakers but only if they figure out how to take advantage of all three. Having two of the three on the court all the time is the optimum option.
Breaking the Lakers’ Big Three point guards into three distinct pairs of playmakers is the smartest scheme to optimize the elite shot-making and playmaking skills of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves.
5. Lakers’ New Starting Lineup & Rotation
Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent give the Lakers’ starting lineup a dramatic upgrade defensively while Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and Christian Koloko give the team’s bench a major upgrade offensively.
The Lakers starters include Luka Doncic, Gabe Vincent, Dorian Finney-Smith, LeBron James, and Jaxson Hayes with backups of Austin Reaves, Dalton Knecht, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Christian Koloko.
JJ Redick’s four lineup changes transformed the Lakers. By upgrading the starting lineup’s defense and the bench’s offense, the Lakers now have excellent offensive and defensive balance throughout their rotation.
The Lakers’ new defense-first starting lineup is essentially Luka Doncic surrounded by four of the Lakers’ five best individual defensive players in Gabe Vincent, Dorian Finney-Smith, LeBron James, and Jaxson Hayes.
Teams that try to switch-hunt Luka Doncic will suddenly find themselves scrambling in chaos as Lakers’ new starting defense aggressively attacks by trapping, doubling, and rotating whenever teams try to switch-hunt.
Over the next 29 games, the Lakers’ starters plus Reaves and Hachimura will likely average 30 minutes per game or 210 of the 240 minutes in the game, leaving just 30 minutes for the team’s three other rotation players.
While Redick will look to rest his top seven players, Doncic, James, Finney-Smith, Vincent, Hayes, Reaves, and Hachimura should play 85 to 90% of the available minutes and Knecht, Vanderbilt, and Koloko just 15 to 20%.
JJ Redick knows he just has 29 games to get the team ready for the playoffs. He also knows today’s game is a critical measuring stick for the Lakers. JJ needs to go bold and make the needed lineup changes before today’s game.
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