Five Questions That Will Determine Whether Lakers Can Upset Nuggets
While the Nuggets are a tough matchup for the Lakers, having swept them in last year’s conference finals and beaten them eight straight games, this is not this year’s conference finals and these are not last year’s Lakers team.
The media loves to create headline stories about how the Nuggets are the Lakers’ daddy and how L.A. will be lucky to win one or two games at best from Denver when the two teams meet in the first round of the playoffs.
What the media is not considering is a first round playoff series between the Lakers and Nuggets will be dramatically different than those two teams meeting in the conference finals after getting rolling with two series wins.
Having to face a very dangerous Lakers team in the playoffs first round is definitely not what Mike Malone and the Nuggets would have preferred, especially considering how red hot the Lakers have been the last month.
The Lakers would have finished April undefeated were it not one loss without both James and Davis and one without Davis. They still finished 5–2 with the #5 offensive rating, #15 defensive rating, and #10 net rating.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets blew a 23-point lead and lost 121–120 to the #14 Spurs, not only losing the #1 seed to the Thunder and falling to #2 but also suddenly finding themselves facing the hungry and dangerous Lakers.
Unlike last season when the Lakers were tired, weary, and slowed by injuries by the time they got to the conference finals, this time Los Angeles will be fresher, deeper, bigger, healthier, and hungrier than Denver.
The oddsmakers have the Nuggets as heavy favorites to beat the Lakers in their first round matchup. $100 bet on the Lakers to win would bring back $275. Gamblers would have to put up $350 to win $100 if Denver triumphs.
The path for the Lakers who are the road team to win the series is to steal one of the first two games in Denver, sweep Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, lose Game 5 in Denver, and close out the series by taking Game 6 in L.A.
The answers to these five critical roster questions will determine whether the Los Angeles Lakers can pull off a surprise upset of the world champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Can AD Control The Joker?
If the Los Angeles Lakers are going to upset the Denver Nuggets in their first round series, Anthony Davis will have to figure out how to match or neutralize Nikola Jokic, who’s now likely to win his second MVP award.
In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games, three of which were close games, with Nikola Jokic supposedly dominating Anthony Davis at both ends of the court during the series.
Just like the media likes to portray the Nuggets as having dominated the Lakers in last year’s conference finals, they also love pushing the story that Jokic dominated Davis, even though their individual stats were similar.
In last year’s conference finals, Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, 11.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks, 3.8 turnover in 42.0 minutes per game shooting 50.6% from the field, 47.1% from deep, and 77.8% from the line.
Anthony Davis meanwhile averaged a similar 26.8 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 turnovers in 41.2 minutes per game shooting 49.3% from the field, 50.0% from deep, and 87.5% from the line.
While Jokic and Davis seem to be fairly equal when it came down to the individual stats for last season’s conference finals, it seemed that every time the Nuggets needed a big play, Nikola was there while AD was not.
This was confirmed by Joker dominating AD in plus/minus, where he posted a +9.8 vs. AD’s -9.0. Jokic’s plus/minus for the series was topped only by Murray’s +10.0 whereas AD’s -9.0 was second worst to Russell’s -11.8.
The major challenge for the Lakers is deciding how to guard Nikola Jokic. Do they have Anthony Davis or Rui Hachimura defend Nikola Jokic? Or do they double or trap the Joker in pick-and-rolls to get ball out of his hands?
Ideally, the Lakers’ best option may be to force Jokic to be a scorer rather than a facilitator, which would mean having Davis defend him one-on-one with the other defenders sticking with the other Nuggets and not helping.
The Lakers need to make Nikola Jokic one dimensional by turning him into a scorer on offense with Anthony Davis playing him one-on-one and a target on defense with AD attacking him in the paint and from the line.
Can LeBron Still Dominate?
While Anthony Davis holding his own with Nikola Jokic is critical, the Lakers will also need 39-year old LeBron James to be dominant like he has been this season if they hope to upset the Nuggets in the first round.
Meeting the Nuggets in the first round could actually be an advantage for the Lakers as LeBron James should be much healthier and fresher than he was when L.A. played Denver in last season’s Western Conference Finals.
More importantly, James worked hard this offseason to fix his 3-point shot and the result has been great. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 2.0 made threes per game on 4.6 attempts per game for 43.5% from deep.
LeBron James’ 21st season might go down as one of the best in his career. Since February 1, LeBron has averaged 26.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers in 36.2 minutes per game.
The turnaround in James’ and the Lakers’ 3-point game as a team has been one of L.A.’s major improvements on offense since last year’s conference finals, where James shot just 26.9% and the team just 34.9% from deep.
The other area where James contributions will be dramatically greater than in last year’s conference finals will be defensively. LeBron is now in full playoff mode, which means he is no longer taking off plays on defense.
The defensive job LeBron James did on Zion Williamson to win a spot in th0e 7/8 Play-In game last Sunday was elite and showed that the King is not afraid to take on tough defensive assignments when needed by his team.
One adjustment the Lakers will need to make for the Denver series is to run more plays and rely less on Davis and James isolation plays. The Lakers are a better and more dangerous team when their offense is less predictable.
The perfect example was James turning control over to Reaves, whose elite drive-and-dish to Russell for the clutch corner three that essentially sealed the Los Angeles Lakers’ Play-In win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
For the Los Angeles Lakers to upset the world champion Denver Nuggets in their looming first round playoff matchup, they will need a healthier and fresher LeBron James to outplay Jamal Murray and lead his team to victory.
Can DLO Redeem Himself?
After being played off the court against the Denver Nuggets in last year’s conference finals and almost being traded at the trade deadline, D’Angelo Russell proceeded to reinvent himself as the third star the Lakers needed.
After getting injured and losing his starting point guard role in December, D’Angelo Russell’s future with the Lakers looked shaky at best. While sitting on the bench, however, DLO came up with a career-defining observation.
Rather than deferring to superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, DLO realized that the smarter thing to do was to be extremely aggressive to take full advantage of the lack of attention paid to him by opposing defenses.
When Darvin Ham re-inserted D’Angelo Russell back into the Lakers’ starting lineup, he suddenly became an entirely different player, increasing his shot attempts and reinventing himself as a volume 3-point shooter.
Over last half of the regular season, DLO averaged 20.4 points, 3.2 boards, 6.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers in 35.5 minutes per game shooting 45.0% from field, 42.6% from deep, and 85.7% from the line.
D’Angelo Russell provided the Lakers with the elite high volume, high percentage, lethal, dead-eye 3-point shooter they desperately needed to create space for and complement LeBron and AD as the team’s third star.
Darvin Ham has also shown more patience with Russell and has given him a green light to shoot as many threes as he can. Hopefully, Ham trusts DLO enough to give him the rope he needs when the Lakers play the Nuggets.
For his part, D’Angelo has continued to be aggressive both with his volume 3-point shooting, crafty drives into the paint, and top grade playmaking. He finished the second half of the season taking almost as many shots as LBJ.
In the process of reinventing himself, DLO set a new franchise record for the most 3-point shots made by a Lakers player in a single regular season, by making a grand total of 226 3-point shots during the 2023–24 season.
D’Angelo Russell has a legitimate opportunity to become the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard of the future if he can redeem himself and deliver as the third Lakers star LeBron James and Anthony Davis desperately need.
Can Lakers Control Murray?
While Nikola Jokic is the sun around which the Nuggets universe revolves, Jamal Murray is the player the Lakers need to control if they’re going to have any chance to upset the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs.
It was Murray who destroyed the Lakers perimeter defenders to lead the Nuggets with 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.8 turnovers in 41.1 minutes per game with shooting splits of 52.7/40.5/95.0%.
Jamal not only had a team best +10.0 plus/minus per game for the series but also recorded the biggest jump in points per game in NBA history going from 20.0 ppg for regular season to 32.5 for Western Conference Finals.
In last year’s conference finals, Murray was defended by multiple Lakers players, including Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt, none of whom had the defensive chops to slow Jamal.
This season, the Lakers replaced Schroder with Gabe Vincent, who’s finally healthy and has shown promise as an elite point-of-attack defender along with Spencer Dinwiddie, both of whom will be called to guard Murray.
The Lakers’ strategy for Jamal Murray should be similar to their strategy for Nikola Jokic, which is to defend him one-on-one without trapping and doubling and don’t allow him to be both a big-time scorer and facilitator.
The key is not allowing Murray to raise his regular season scoring average from 20.0 ppg to 32.5 ppg in the conference finals. This season, Murray averaged 21.2 ppg this season. Lakers will need to hold him to 25.0 ppg.
As with Jokic, the Lakers have to make Murray work on defense, which should be easier this season since the Lakers have now built strong, solid continuity with a starting lineup that’s become an offensive juggernaut.
With guards Russell and Reaves, forwards James and Hachimura, and center Davis, the Lakers starting lineup boasts players who can easily make Jamal Murray work on defense and hopefully get him into foul difficulty.
The Lakers need to control Jamal Murray offensively with elite one-on-one defense and not allow him to average 30.0 ppg and defensively by attacking him and running offense through Russell, Reaves, or whomever he guards.
Can L.A. Outshoot Denver?
The Lakers’ surprise wild card in their upcoming first round matchup with the world champion Nuggets will be their sudden dramatic improvement in 3-point shooting proficiency led by LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell.
Since LeBron James joined the Lakers, the team’s winning formula has been to dominate points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made by +10 points per game to offset their -10 points per game 3-point shooting differential.
But since February 1, the Lakers have continued to win PIP and FTM by 10 points per game but are now close to breaking even when it comes to the threes they made versus the threes made by opponents in any game.
Since February 1, the Lakers’ 39.3% 3-point percentage was the best in the Western Conference and second best in the entire NBA behind the Celtics 39.9%. The Nuggets meanwhile shot 38.1% from deep, which was 7th.
The Nuggets are going to see a much more dangerous 3-point shooting Lakers team in the first round of the playoffs than the one they easily outshot from deep by 40.3% to 34.9% during last year’s conference finals.
In last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets won the 3-point shooting battle over the Lakers by 15.8 points per game. Note that this was in a four-game playoff series where they won each game by an average of just 6.0 points.
Imagine how different the upcoming first round battle is going to be if the Lakers actually outscore the Nuggets from deep. The Lakers newfound 3-point shooting prowess has totally changed their formula for winning.
By changing their winning formula, the Lakers have a unique opportunity to pull off a blockbuster upset that not only eliminates their primary West competitor but also leaves the door to the 2024 NBA Finals wide open.
The Lakers new 3-point shooting prowess has completed a transformation of their offense into a juggernaut where they can win games by raining threes as well as dominating points-in-the-paint and free-throws-made.
The Lakers changing their formula for how to win games so they no longer lose the 3-point shooting battles is their surprise wild card that will erase the Nuggets traditional edge and help the L.A. upset Denver in 6 games.
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